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Showing posts from July 14, 2019

Inversion of yield curve, a possible recession?

Investors were literally on the edge of their seats, glued to television sets when the 2-year and 5-year yield curve inverted in December after Fed raised the rates to 2.25%-2.5%. It was prominent that market hadn’t expected another hike in December which was evidenced by the worst single month decline in S&P in years. However, strong economic numbers, low unemployment and better than expected third quarter earnings managed to pull market into the green territory. Not only Fed, in its dovish tone, tried to pacify investors reciting low possibility of a hike this year, positive updates on the seemingly never-ending trade war with China has also kept investors bullish. Certainly, it seemed like market was off to its best year in a decade. Nevertheless, celebrations couldn’t last longer. While the fear of recession nagged investors since late last year, roaring market has been able to disguise it somehow. But, the recent inversion of three-month and ten-year curve brought back the...