Record rise in unemployment claims, sharpest decline in the capital markets in two months, largest ever stimulus package- this shock or recession is turning out to be an unprecedented time for everyone. Economists are not shying away from tagging it the worst recession in the history of mankind- at least 5 times higher than 2008 global recession. The intensity of the shock swept away billions of investors’ money in capital markets. This Uncharted territory created a perplexing situation for asset managers across the world.
Optimal exposure to markets remains a big question, at the time when market has already dropped 30% in one of the steepest declines ever, it is perceived that markets have still not found the bottom yet. Only history can tell what the magnitude of this economic contagion could be.
Companies were quick to capitalize on the low interest rate environment and levered excessively. While no one could have anticipated such a scenario, the precipitous decline of some of these stocks in comparisons to others introduce one such factor in an ever-increasing popularity of multi factor portfolios.
Excessive outflows from scared institutional investors, rapid sector rotation to defensive sectors and strategic rebalancing lead to some plausible opportunities. The behavior is exacerbated in some emerging markets.
Executing a long short strategy on stocks based on a fundamental factor of debt to equity has provided decent returns with minimal exposure and lesser relative downside with respect to benchmark. While the factor does not seem to perform that well during peak or growing stages of business cycle, performance during downturns makes it worth a look.
I executed a long short strategy with equal weighting during the 2007 downturn. Starting with the long and short positions in top and bottom 20% of stocks in the spectrum, I made sure the strategy was undertaken when the market was at peak and the news of the recession surfaced. Looking at monthly holding period returns (not taking dividends) of the strategy and comparing it to the benchmark shows that it provides relatively more returns with a positive slope for at least 6 months from the start. While the speed of the market decline would affect the returns, this could be one such factor to lessen the market exposure and get some decent returns during high market volatility.
(Data – WRDS)
Optimal exposure to markets remains a big question, at the time when market has already dropped 30% in one of the steepest declines ever, it is perceived that markets have still not found the bottom yet. Only history can tell what the magnitude of this economic contagion could be.
Companies were quick to capitalize on the low interest rate environment and levered excessively. While no one could have anticipated such a scenario, the precipitous decline of some of these stocks in comparisons to others introduce one such factor in an ever-increasing popularity of multi factor portfolios.
Excessive outflows from scared institutional investors, rapid sector rotation to defensive sectors and strategic rebalancing lead to some plausible opportunities. The behavior is exacerbated in some emerging markets.
Executing a long short strategy on stocks based on a fundamental factor of debt to equity has provided decent returns with minimal exposure and lesser relative downside with respect to benchmark. While the factor does not seem to perform that well during peak or growing stages of business cycle, performance during downturns makes it worth a look.
I executed a long short strategy with equal weighting during the 2007 downturn. Starting with the long and short positions in top and bottom 20% of stocks in the spectrum, I made sure the strategy was undertaken when the market was at peak and the news of the recession surfaced. Looking at monthly holding period returns (not taking dividends) of the strategy and comparing it to the benchmark shows that it provides relatively more returns with a positive slope for at least 6 months from the start. While the speed of the market decline would affect the returns, this could be one such factor to lessen the market exposure and get some decent returns during high market volatility.
(Data – WRDS)
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